Electric vs Gas Heating Cost

Compare a heat pump against a gas furnace on delivered dollars per MMBTU, using your own utility rates, the furnace AFUE and the heat-pump COP.

Estimate: results come from the values you enter and standard reference constants. Get real written quotes and check your utility bill before you decide.
Gas & CO safety: Gas appliances must be installed and serviced by a licensed professional. Improper work risks fire and carbon-monoxide poisoning — install CO alarms. This tool is for planning estimates only.

Calculator

$/therm
Your natural-gas price per therm, from the bill.
0–1
AFUE as a fraction (0.95 = 95%).
$/kWh
Your all-in electricity rate per kWh.
COP
The heat-pump COP at the temperature you care about.
Gas furnace$15.79 /MMBTU
Heat pump (electric)$14.65 /MMBTU
Cheaper sourceThe heat pump

On your rates, gas heat costs $15.79/MMBTU and the heat pump $14.65/MMBTU — the heat pump is cheaper to run.

“Is a heat pump cheaper than gas?” has no universal answer — it depends on four local numbers: your gas price, your electricity price, the furnace’s AFUE and the heat pump’s COP. The only fair way to compare a therm of gas with a kilowatt-hour of electricity is to convert both to the same unit of delivered heat: dollars per million BTU ($/MMBTU). This tool does exactly that and tells you which is cheaper on your rates.

Both fuels lose something between purchase and useful heat: the furnace throws away flue losses (captured by AFUE), while the heat pump multiplies its electricity by the COP. Feeding in your real prices and efficiencies removes the guesswork — and because there are no stored tariffs, the comparison stays valid whenever prices move; just re-enter them.

Formula

Delivered cost per million BTU for each source:

  • Gas: $/MMBTU = gas price ÷ (100,000 × AFUE) × 1,000,000
  • Heat pump: $/MMBTU = electricity price ÷ (3,412 × COP) × 1,000,000

100,000 is the BTU in a therm; 3,412 is the BTU in a kilowatt-hour. Dividing by AFUE (below 1) raises the gas cost for flue losses; dividing by COP (above 1) lowers the heat-pump cost because it moves several times more heat than the electricity it draws. The lower $/MMBTU wins.

Worked example

Gas at $1.50/therm, 95% AFUE vs a heat pump at $0.15/kWh, COP 3:

  • Gas: 1.50 ÷ (100,000 × 0.95) × 1,000,000 = $15.79/MMBTU
  • Heat pump: 0.15 ÷ (3,412 × 3) × 1,000,000 = $14.66/MMBTU

Here the heat pump is cheaper — but only by about 7%. Drop the COP to 2.2 on a cold day and the heat pump jumps to $19.99/MMBTU, and gas wins comfortably. That crossover is the whole point of a balance point: which source is cheaper flips with the weather.

What the comparison does and does not include

This compares operating cost only. It says nothing about install cost, equipment life, comfort or emissions, and it uses a single COP rather than a whole-season average — a heat pump’s real seasonal cost blends many temperatures. For a fuller picture, rank every option (electric resistance, heat pump, gas, propane, oil) with $/MMBTU by fuel, and read the heat pump vs gas furnace and dual-fuel guides.

Gas and combustion work stay in professional hands regardless of what the math favors: improper installation or venting risks fire and carbon-monoxide poisoning, so use a licensed installer and keep CO alarms in the home.

A practical way to use the result is to find your own crossover. Try the tool at your mild-weather COP, then again at a cold-morning COP, and note where the heat pump’s $/MMBTU rises past your gas figure. That temperature is your economic balance point: above it, run the heat pump; below it, the furnace (or backup) is cheaper. A dual-fuel system automates exactly this handoff, and the balance-point tool estimates the crossover directly from your rates and efficiencies.

Reference table

Heat-pump delivered cost by COP at a sample $0.15/kWh, versus 95% gas at $1.50/therm = $15.79/MMBTU (use your own rates in the tool):

Heat pumpDelivered cost
COP 2.0$21.98/MMBTU
COP 2.5$17.58/MMBTU
COP 3.0$14.65/MMBTU
COP 3.5$12.56/MMBTU
COP 4.0$10.99/MMBTU

Frequently asked questions

Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace?
Sometimes. At $0.15/kWh with COP 3, a heat pump costs about $14.66/MMBTU versus $15.79/MMBTU for 95% gas at $1.50/therm — slightly cheaper. But drop the COP on a cold day and gas wins. Enter your own rates to get your answer.
Why compare on $/MMBTU instead of per unit?
A therm and a kilowatt-hour hold different amounts of energy and are delivered at different efficiencies, so comparing headline prices is meaningless. Converting both to dollars per million BTU of delivered heat is the only apples-to-apples comparison.
What COP should I use?
Use the COP at the outdoor temperature you care about. A mild-weather COP of 3.5–4 makes the heat pump look great; a design-cold COP near 2 can hand the win to gas. For a whole-season view, combine this with the balance-point tool.
Does this include installation cost?
No — this is running cost only. Equipment and install prices, incentives, comfort and lifespan all matter to the overall decision and vary too much to store. Use the replacement and financing tools for the up-front side.
What about propane or oil?
This tool compares gas and a heat pump. To rank electric resistance, heat pump, natural gas, propane and heating oil together on delivered $/MMBTU, use the $/MMBTU-by-fuel tool.
My electricity is expensive — is gas always better then?
Often, but check the numbers. A high COP can still beat pricey electricity: at $0.20/kWh and COP 3.5 the heat pump delivers heat at about $16.75/MMBTU, close to 95% gas at $1.50/therm. It is the ratio of electricity price to gas price, weighted by COP and AFUE, that decides — which is exactly what the calculator works out for your rates.
Does a higher AFUE change the winner?
Yes, a little. Moving from an 80% to a 96% furnace cuts the gas $/MMBTU by about 17%, making gas more competitive against the heat pump. Enter your furnace’s real AFUE — an old non-condensing unit and a modern condensing one give quite different comparisons.